Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x1359…7e7b
weather · 1181 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$209 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$206 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$154
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses934 / 219
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1153 / 1181
History coverage64d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 28 History 1153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$311
14 days−$311
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 93¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? No 89¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? No 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? No 91¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? No 86¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? No 92¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? No 87¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? No 95¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? No 94¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 88¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$151
other 3% −$67
sports 2% −$5
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 46m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -10.7% -19.2% 83% 6% -27.4%
≤30d 242 -9.3% -17.9% 83% 10% -25.5%
≤90d 1153 +0.7% -8.9% 81% 61% -11.5%
all 1153 +0.7% -8.9% 81% 61% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 61% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 28% -19.9%
15% -25.5% 11% -27.7%
20% -32.8% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.90 · official $153.91 (match) · 2537 history records