Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x135e…7f08 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$93 (+9%) realized +$96 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +99% what you keep after slip
Net edge+99%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+107.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +128.8% +107.0% 80% 80% +82.1%
≤30d 5 +128.8% +107.0% 80% 80% +82.1%
≤90d 5 +128.8% +107.0% 80% 80% +82.1%
all 5 +128.8% +107.0% 80% 80% +82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +107.0% 80% +82.1%
10% +87.2% 60% +64.7%
15% +69.1% 60% +48.8%
20% +52.5% 60% +34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +129% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$2 · ×56.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×224.0 per $1 lost it wins $224.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $51 +$261 +509%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $210 +$147 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $126 +$84 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $357 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $210 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $126 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 4¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.62 · official $496.62 (match) · 13 history records