Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1361…9727 world 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$23
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
world 32% −$18
sports 19% $0
politics 7% +$2
tech 3% −$23
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.8% -12.0% 17% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 21 -0.6% -10.0% 43% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 31 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 3% -10.1%
all 61 -0.9% -10.4% 31% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -10.1%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage296d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $149 −$6 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $151 −$19 -13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $178 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $234 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $89 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $11 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $89 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $180 −$6 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $6 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $95 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $81 +$15 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $189 +$1 +1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $43 +$2 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $163 −$23 -14%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $549 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $549 +$1 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1,153 +$1 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $588 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 13 $3 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $67 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $61 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $57 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $68 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $68 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $58 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $92 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $78 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $73 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $73 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $82 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $83 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.62 · official $66.50 (match) · 256 history records