Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
13 0x1362…affc sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2
other 26% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.8% +15.6% 67% 67% +41.5%
≤30d 3 +27.8% +15.6% 67% 67% +41.5%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 64% -10.5%
all 11 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 64% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 64% -10.5%
10% -17.9% 36% -19.1%
15% -25.8% 36% -26.9%
20% -33.1% 27% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage64d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 45¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Will PARIVISION win PGL Wallachia Season 8? May 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 22 $5 +$6 +116%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $10 −$5 -49%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $5 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $5 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag SELL MOUZ 53¢ $11 54d
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag BUY MOUZ 24¢ $5 54d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner BUY Xtreme Gaming 38¢ $5 56d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner SELL South America Rejects 50¢ $7 56d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner BUY South America Rejects 35¢ $5 56d
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner SELL Heroic 99¢ $6 56d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Vici Gaming 42¢ $10 56d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Vici Gaming 39¢ $5 56d
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Heroic 85¢ $5 56d
Will PARIVISION win PGL Wallachia Season 8? BUY No 89¢ $10 60d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 60d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 60d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 64d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 64d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $1 64d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 64d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 64d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.61 · official $23.61 (match) · 27 history records