Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1362…2081 crypto 1069 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$402 (-1%) realized −$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%608W / 461L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$376
14 days−$424
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$394
sports 8% −$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -22.0% -29.5% 43% 16% -21.7%
≤30d 236 -2.3% -11.6% 73% 44% -10.4%
≤90d 703 -49.5% -54.3% 34% 24% -12.9%
all 1069 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -11.1%
10% -20.2% 47% -19.6%
15% -27.9% 45% -27.3%
20% -35.0% 43% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses608 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1069 / 1069
History coverage103d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1069 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $360 +$21 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $373 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$90 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $58 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$21 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $313 −$308 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $380 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $378 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $366 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $380 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $380 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $374 +$26 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $380 +$20 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $454 −$453 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $71 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $394 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $360 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $373 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $193 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $292 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $187 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $78 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $58 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2521 history records