Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1365…c82a sports 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64,675 (+12%) realized +$65,282 · open −$607
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%122W / 76L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$2,787per market
Trades / day185.5pace
Fees−$6,360est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$11,466
crypto 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 58% -30.9%
≤30d 198 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 61% -7.6%
≤90d 198 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 61% -7.6%
all 198 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 61% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 61% -7.6%
10% -12.7% 56% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 47% -24.5%
20% -28.9% 34% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$3,070) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,685 vs −$2,547 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$4,960
Realized+$65,282
Unrealized−$607
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses122 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$6,360
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$2,787
Trades / day185.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 69¢ 100¢ $2,004 $2,908 +$904 (+45%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ 100¢ $1,161 $2,050 +$889 (+77%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 70¢ 0¢ $2,402 $2 −$2,400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $676 +$503 +74%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,164 +$1,082 +93%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $145 +$62 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $318 +$473 +149%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $356 −$356 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $452 −$452 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $425 −$425 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $576 −$576 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $632 −$632 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 16 $850 −$850 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,964 −$2,964 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,908 −$2,908 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $2,642 −$2,642 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7,223 −$7,223 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $9,202 −$9,202 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $9,286 −$9,286 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8,813 −$8,813 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $11,693 −$11,693 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $10,283 −$10,283 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $37,546 −$37,546 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $936 −$936 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,481 −$1,481 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,099 −$2,099 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $884 −$884 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,445 −$2,445 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,395 −$2,395 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $606 +$701 +116%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $410 +$224 +55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $338 +$155 +46%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20,424 +$13,769 +67%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2,145 +$1,720 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $326 −$326 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $768 +$177 +23%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,115 +$451 +21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,474 +$829 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,422 +$654 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,120 +$2,283 +108%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,030 +$774 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$26 +186%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $922 +$1,303 +141%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,551 +$339 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $172 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $90 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $64 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $21 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $2 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $82 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $8 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $187 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $212 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $24 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $6 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $39 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $128 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $257 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $213 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $62 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $206 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,959.88 · official $4,959.88 (match) · 3500 history records