Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x136a…6ba9 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$52 (+9%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +21.8% +10.2% 79% 42% -0.7%
≤30d 24 +21.8% +10.2% 79% 42% -0.7%
≤90d 24 +21.8% +10.2% 79% 42% -0.7%
all 24 +21.8% +10.2% 79% 42% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 42% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 38% -10.2%
15% -10.0% 25% -18.9%
20% -18.8% 25% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.4 per $1 lost it wins $14.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $55 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$13 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records