Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1372…14d7 crypto 103 markets active 6d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%50W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$19
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -22.8% -30.2% 50% 38% -20.5%
≤30d 103 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 42% -15.0%
≤90d 103 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 42% -15.0%
all 103 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 42% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 42% -15.0%
10% -16.6% 34% -23.1%
15% -24.6% 29% -30.5%
20% -32.0% 25% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses50 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $19 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$7 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $8 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records