Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1373…290f crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-5%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%43W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days−$252
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$9
other 17% +$49
sports 13% −$12
politics 7% −$40
economics 2% −$20
culture 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +50.7% +36.4% 100% 100% +37.0%
≤30d 47 -62.9% -66.4% 19% 19% -58.4%
≤90d 48 -61.1% -64.8% 21% 21% -55.5%
all 93 -8.7% -17.4% 46% 42% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 42% -12.7%
10% -25.3% 33% -21.1%
15% -32.5% 29% -28.7%
20% -39.1% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses43 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage312d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$23 +90%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$7 +107%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Colts vs. Seahawks Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barnsley FC win on 2026-01-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Egypt win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-18? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Giants vs. Patriots Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 US Open? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -77%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $18 +$14 +79%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? May 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 05 $11 −$8 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $4 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 60¢ $8 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $10 10d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 48¢ $6 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $5 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $12 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $16 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 59¢ $10 12d
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 12d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $18 12d
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 20d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 27d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 39d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $4 39d
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 88¢ $24 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $30 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.98 · official $9.98 (match) · 207 history records