Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x1375…c6f7 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$57 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$264per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.0%	-9.5%	100%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	3	+3.1%	-6.7%	67%	0%	-5.5%
≤90d	3	+3.1%	-6.7%	67%	0%	-5.5%
all	3	+3.1%	-6.7%	67%	0%	-5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.7%	0%	-5.5%
10%	-15.6%	0%	-14.6%
15%	-23.8%	0%	-22.8%
20%	-31.2%	0%	-30.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$1 · ×22.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×44.62 per $1 lost it wins $44.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$57

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage8d

Avg bet$264

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$44	$43	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	Jun 22	$55	$0	+0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$478	+$46	+10%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Jun 14	$479	−$1	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$22	42m
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$22	42m
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL Yes	6¢	$55	1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$28	2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$26	2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	91¢	$478	8d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	SELL No	93¢	$478	8d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$479	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.68 · official $42.68 (match) · 9 history records