Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1376…e875 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% $0
politics 28% −$2
sports 8% −$1
economics 6% −$4
culture 6% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 3 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 4 +1.7% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 81 -5.4% -14.4% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage393d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$4 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $69 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $67 $0 +0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $69 $0 +0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 14 $69 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 05 $148 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 04 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 16 $1 $0 -28%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Oct 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $379 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $151 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $68 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $67 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $68 23d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 36d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 102d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $67 120d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $67 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $68 141d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? BUY Yes $1 142d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 142d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 142d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 143d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 143d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 143d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 143d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 145d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 145d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? BUY No 100¢ $67 147d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 147d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 148d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 148d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 151d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $70 151d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $70 153d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $69 154d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $69 155d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.52 · official $73.52 (match) · 363 history records