Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x1376…9d1b
other · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$520 -92%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$520 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage178d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%
Chart Positions 6 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? No 17¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? No 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? No 54¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? No 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? Dec 19 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 93% −$522
other 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 176d
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? BUY No 7¢ $2 176d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? BUY No 10¢ $110 176d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 177d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? BUY No 34¢ $150 177d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY No 31¢ $100 177d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 54¢ $160 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +28.8% +16.6% 40% 20% -3.9%
≤30d 5 +28.8% +16.6% 40% 20% -3.9%
≤90d 5 +28.8% +16.6% 40% 20% -3.9%
all 9 -28.4% -35.2% 22% 11% -94.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 11% -94.1%
10% -41.4% 11% -94.7%
15% -47.1% 11% -95.2%
20% -52.3% 11% -95.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.93 · official $6.94 (match) · 20 history records