Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1376…eced world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 18% $0
crypto 15% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage294d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $31 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $35 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $16 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $4 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $31 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $34 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $32 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $32 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $32 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $31 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $30 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $34 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $35 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $32 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $32 21d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $26 279d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records