Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1379…b41e crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (325 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,180 (-8%) realized −$9,194 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%49W / 50L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,129per market
Trades / day325.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13,309
other 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (325 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -19.1%
≤30d 99 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -19.1%
≤90d 99 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -19.1%
all 99 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 44% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover325.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 44% -19.1%
10% -27.7% 36% -26.8%
15% ← realistic here -34.7% 32% -33.9%
20% -41.1% 25% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,040) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$566 vs −$823 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$9,194
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses49 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,129
Trades / day325.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 77¢ 82¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $208 −$195 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $310 −$66 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $236 +$242 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,083 −$1,059 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $213 +$691 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $516 +$206 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $208 −$200 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $982 +$445 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $359 −$350 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $518 +$272 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $525 +$628 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $622 +$362 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $913 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $143 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,038 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$44 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,015 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $363 −$350 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2,069 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,034 +$450 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $356 −$348 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $831 −$483 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,032 −$990 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $514 −$337 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $515 +$173 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,807 −$534 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $513 +$127 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $630 −$612 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $421 +$533 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $835 +$733 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $516 +$190 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,121 +$234 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $522 −$513 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5,623 −$4,679 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4,084 +$582 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,678 −$1,600 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2,122 −$1,929 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,040 +$665 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4,306 +$966 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $205 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $104 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $24 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $205 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $105 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $522 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $561 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $209 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $204 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $236 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $213 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $292 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $722 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $207 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $516 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $208 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $384 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $598 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $359 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1,024 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $790 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,153 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.29 · official $194.42 · 339 history records