Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
13 0x1379…d14a sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$568 (+4%) realized +$648 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$560per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$660
14 days+$565
30 days+$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$1,012
sports 14% −$832
other 9% +$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -49.8% -54.6% 29% 14% -5.2%
≤90d 8 -46.4% -51.5% 25% 12% -5.3%
all 8 -46.4% -51.5% 25% 12% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.5% 12% -5.3%
10% -56.2% 12% -14.4%
15% -60.4% 12% -22.7%
20% -64.3% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$663 vs −$129 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized+$648
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions10
Markets (closed)8 / 24
History coverage30d
Avg bet$560
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 29¢ 26¢ $501 $441 −$60 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $28 −$23 (-45%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+93%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$24 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $607 −$600 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $687 +$313 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10,299 +$1,012 +10%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 −$4 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $49 −$11 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $256 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands vs. Morocc BUY 1¢ $5 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $31 27h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Colo BUY 19¢ $300 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay BUY 21¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 15¢ $51 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $31 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bos BUY 27¢ $204 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $607 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY 16¢ $31 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $687 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,954 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.13 · official $931.99 · 64 history records