Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x137c…ae0d other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$18
politics 33% −$13
sports 5% +$37
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 +1.4% -8.3% 4% 2% -9.6%
all 110 +1.5% -8.2% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×11.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage116d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $251 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $239 $0 +0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $728 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $265 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $492 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $453 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $503 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 9h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 18h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $38 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 25h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $225 30d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $225 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $192 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $192 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records