Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x137f…6689 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,160 (-27%) realized −$4,288 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day181.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$356
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 44% -2.2%
≤30d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 35% -6.7%
≤90d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 35% -6.7%
all 31 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 35% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover181.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 35% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 29% -15.7%
15% -24.5% 16% -23.8%
20% -31.9% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
57.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$40 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,502
Realized−$4,288
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions20
Markets (closed)31 / 49
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$311
Trades / day181.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $774 $805 +$31 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $224 $251 +$27 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $223 $246 +$22 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $207 $223 +$16 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $194 $213 +$18 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $237 $151 −$86 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $124 $140 +$17 (+13%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 86¢ 100¢ $86 $101 +$14 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Down 62¢ 42¢ $125 $84 −$41 (-33%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $64 $72 +$8 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $104 $70 −$34 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $53 $56 +$2 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Down 56¢ 49¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 60¢ 58¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $1,085 −$23 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $826 −$18 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $1,275 +$278 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $504 +$65 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 27 $91 −$64 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $316 −$19 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $203 +$49 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $146 +$97 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $446 +$133 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $145 +$34 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $170 +$55 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $99 −$37 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 22 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $103 −$17 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 22 $52 −$32 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $150 −$22 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 20 $338 −$77 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 20 $148 −$79 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $161 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$24 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $187 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $334 −$112 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $177 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $68 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $84 −$39 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 60¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 60¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 60¢ $3 7m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 18m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 40m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 57m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 59¢ $18 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $47 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 79¢ $4 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 58¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,502.28 · official $2,499.72 (match) · 3500 history records