Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1385…e96a weather 594 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$103 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%241W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$161
14 days−$226
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$21
crypto 6% −$59
other 5% +$29
world 1% +$30
sports 0% +$8
politics 0% −$13
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.1% -17.7% 37% 32% -42.7%
≤30d 122 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 25% -31.7%
≤90d 510 +4.7% -5.3% 39% 27% -9.8%
all 584 +4.0% -5.9% 41% 28% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 28% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 23% -19.5%
15% -23.1% 21% -27.3%
20% -30.7% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses241 / 343
Open positions10
Markets (closed)584 / 594
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $1 $30 +$29 (+3185%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 19¢ 100¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+427%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 55¢ 82¢ $9 $13 +$5 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 57¢ 98¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 70¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 +$2 +895%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $28 +$14 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -70%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$4 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $27 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$10 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $9 −$7 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$8 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $28 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 86°F or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -81%
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $33 −$15 -45%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 06 $8 −$6 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 06 $13 −$10 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 33¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 21¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 18¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 67¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.11 · official $83.17 (match) · 3500 history records