Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1386…c026 crypto 1991 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$218 (+1%) realized +$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%1468W / 551L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$422
7 days−$442
14 days−$325
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$476
other 10% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -51.9% -56.5% 42% 21% -40.8%
≤30d 550 -11.3% -19.7% 69% 40% -16.8%
≤90d 2019 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 47% -12.0%
all 2019 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 47% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -20.4%
15% -27.3% 16% -28.1%
20% -34.5% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1468 / 551
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2019 / 1991
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2019 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $98 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $78 −$77 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $84 −$83 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $81 +$20 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$6 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $90 +$11 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $98 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $78 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $84 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $81 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $95 43h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $90 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $95 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $39 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.42 · official $2.42 (match) · 3500 history records