Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1386…373a crypto 1095 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (265 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-5%) realized −$111 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate86%939W / 152L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day265.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$3
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$41
other 7% +$6
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (265 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 595 +1.8% -7.9% 84% 70% -9.7%
≤30d 1091 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 66% -8.0%
≤90d 1091 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 66% -8.0%
all 1091 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 66% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover265.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 66% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 25% -16.8%
15% -24.3% 5% -24.8%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses939 / 152
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1091 / 1095
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day265.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1091 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.19 · official $38.19 (match) · 3500 history records