trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 19 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 1? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 2? | Jun 01 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? | Apr 19 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on April 16? | Apr 15 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? | Apr 07 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Apr 07 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 25? | Mar 24 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Mar 22 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 17? | Mar 17 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? | Mar 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene | Mar 01 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? | Mar 01 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 7 | Feb 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? | Feb 06 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 31? | Jan 17 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 17 | $136 | $0 | +0% |