Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x1388…deca weather 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% $0
crypto 34% $0
other 14% $0
tech 4% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 19 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage185d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on April 16? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 25? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 17? Mar 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? Mar 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Mar 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 7 Feb 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 06 $13 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $13 $0 +1%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Jan 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 17 $136 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $62 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 71d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $42 75d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $34 84d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 90d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 97d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 103d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $42 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $10 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 117d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 122d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $20 138d
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY No 100¢ $9 141d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 7 BUY No 100¢ $7 142d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 145d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 164d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 164d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $136 180d
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.18 · official $160.18 (match) · 36 history records