Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x138b…b6d5 weather 1095 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$375 (+1%) realized +$369 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1056W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day79.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$96
14 days−$57
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$23
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 683 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 1075 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.9%
all 1075 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized+$369
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1056 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1075 / 1095
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day79.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1075 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 96¢ 99¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 94¢ $46 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $9 25m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $26 26m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 31m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.28 · official $1,024.28 (match) · 3500 history records