Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x138c…d2c7
weather · 46 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$532 -69%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$532 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 0 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on October 22? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on October 20? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or higher on October 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on October 19? No 59¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 23? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? No 68¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 23? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or below on October 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on October 22? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on October 23? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or below on October 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on October 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on October 24? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31? Nov 18 $11 +$2 +20%
Will between 16 and 19 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurrica Nov 18 $447 −$441 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on Oc Oct 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Oc Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on Octo Oct 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Oc Oct 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on Oc Oct 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or below on Octo Oct 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on Oc Oct 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on Oc Oct 21 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on Oc Oct 21 $9 −$8 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on Oc Oct 21 $21 +$25 +120%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or higher on Oct Oct 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m? Oct 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or below on Octo Oct 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on Oc Oct 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on Oc Oct 20 $3 −$2 -74%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Oct 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on Oc Oct 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or below on Octo Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on Oc Oct 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Oc Oct 19 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Oc Oct 17 $29 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Oc Oct 17 $8 −$5 -62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on Oc Oct 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on Oc Oct 16 $9 +$7 +85%
Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane se Oct 08 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% −$517
crypto 8% +$3
other 2% −$12
culture 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.7% -0.8% 72% 67% -4.6%
≤30d 18 +9.7% -0.8% 72% 67% -4.6%
≤90d 18 +9.7% -0.8% 72% 67% -4.6%
all 46 -34.6% -40.8% 41% 39% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 39% -71.6%
10% -46.5% 30% -74.4%
15% -51.6% 20% -76.8%
20% -56.4% 13% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records