Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x138f…33a0 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$810 (-0%) realized −$810 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 115L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,305per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$30
14 days−$63
30 days−$1,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$288
politics 37% −$36
sports 11% −$524
economics 3% −$7
culture 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -9.8% -18.4% 15% 9% -12.2%
≤90d 81 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 5% -10.1%
all 143 +3.2% -6.6% 20% 13% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 13% -9.9%
10% -15.5% 13% -18.6%
15% -23.7% 12% -26.4%
20% -31.2% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,780) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$21 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized−$810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,305
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $373 $373 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,755 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,362 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,924 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,726 −$4 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 13 $2,502 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $169 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $3,959 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,756 −$5 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 08 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $920 −$1 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $48 +$61 +129%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,339 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,342 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $72 +$70 +97%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 24 $1,317 −$1,317 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $37 +$16 +44%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,282 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $4,392 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,291 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,308 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,209 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,308 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $5,126 −$5 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $373 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,474 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 21h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,518 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,520 25h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,499 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,501 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,213 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,215 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,554 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,556 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $1,384 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,386 3d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,471 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,473 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,357 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,359 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,332 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,334 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,391 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,393 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,093 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,126 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,127 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $989 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $991 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $169 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.00 · official $373.00 (match) · 441 history records