Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1390…6541 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$3
politics 22% +$1
crypto 12% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 8% +$1
other 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 17% -11.3%
≤30d 12 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 12 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 8% -10.2%
all 45 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage309d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 02 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 22 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-12.5m? Aug 20 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $2 $0 -14%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 17 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $34 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $34 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $33 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $33 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $33 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records