Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x1392…1998 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$56 (+8%) realized +$29 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$5
other 20% +$42
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +57.4% +42.4% 34% 34% -5.0%
≤30d 30 +56.8% +41.9% 37% 37% -4.1%
≤90d 30 +56.8% +41.9% 37% 37% -4.1%
all 30 +56.8% +41.9% 37% 37% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.9% 37% -4.1%
10% +28.3% 33% -13.3%
15% +15.9% 33% -21.7%
20% +4.6% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +101% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Alpha Dominion Nation 61¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $81 −$9 -11%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$11 +38%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 +$25 +245%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $35 +$5 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$32 +105%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -59%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $43 +$22 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$6 -38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $52 −$31 -61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $51 −$9 -19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$14 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$28 +892%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$22 +165%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 61¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 79¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 85¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 SELL Alpha Gaming 15¢ $7 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner SELL Riddle 96¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 22¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner SELL AGELITE 100¢ $35 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 69¢ $30 3h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner BUY AGELITE 28¢ $10 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $35 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 18h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 11¢ $5 23h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 40h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $15 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 2d
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 2d
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain $2 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 21¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.02 · official $97.02 (match) · 69 history records