Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x1393…ba33 sports 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,518 (-11%) realized −$13,558 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%155W / 186L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$740est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days−$439
14 days−$539
30 days−$1,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$13,636
world 1% +$34
crypto 1% −$583
other 0% −$534
culture 0% −$368
politics 0% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 25% -52.7%
≤30d 36 -25.3% -32.4% 39% 39% -20.8%
≤90d 172 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 47% -14.7%
all 341 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 45% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 45% -20.8%
10% -23.1% 44% -28.3%
15% -30.5% 43% -35.3%
20% -37.3% 38% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$311 vs −$342 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$13,558
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses155 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$740
Open positions1
Markets (closed)341 / 342
History coverage193d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 88¢ $80 $120 +$40 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $244 +$236 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $239 −$234 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $395 −$392 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$48 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $297 −$292 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $37 −$35 -96%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $243 −$240 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $150 +$129 +86%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $150 −$147 -98%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $95 −$93 -98%
Set Handicap: Atmane (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) May 25 $492 −$486 -99%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $309 −$300 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $292 −$287 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $562 +$556 +99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $195 +$181 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $271 +$488 +180%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 24 $389 +$277 +71%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $266 +$317 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $667 −$657 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $319 +$348 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $994 −$973 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $411 +$155 +38%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $160 −$159 -99%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $895 +$511 +57%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $252 −$249 -99%
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5 May 20 $150 +$101 +67%
Luciano Darderi vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 20 $136 −$134 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $825 +$359 +44%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $101 −$4 -4%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $236 +$195 +83%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $156 +$80 +51%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 18 $433 +$117 +27%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $269 +$167 +62%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 17 $998 +$529 +53%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $174 −$169 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $716 −$710 -99%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $227 +$173 +76%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $264 +$340 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $599 +$225 +38%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $305 +$361 +118%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $302 −$298 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $193 +$610 +316%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $584 −$379 -65%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $286 −$283 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $221 +$105 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $81 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $480 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $244 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $239 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $395 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $50 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 65¢ $51 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik BUY Mariano Navone 46¢ $297 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $37 21d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Spurs 59¢ $243 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 53¢ $150 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 36¢ $150 22d
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series BUY FunPlus Phoenix 38¢ $95 23d
Set Handicap: Atmane (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) BUY Atmane 61¢ $492 23d
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy BUY Taylor Fritz 37¢ $292 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $59 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $10 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $700 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $173 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $34 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $9 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $10 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $57 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $2 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 95¢ $65 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 47¢ $508 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 47¢ $54 24d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 100¢ $376 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.00 · official $120.00 (match) · 763 history records