Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x139b…ddc6 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-4%) realized −$48 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$64
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 17% -14.5%
≤30d 18 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 17% -14.5%
≤90d 18 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 17% -14.5%
all 18 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 17% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 17% -14.5%
10% -34.0% 17% -22.7%
15% -40.4% 11% -30.2%
20% -46.2% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$34 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 +$16 +119%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $105 −$94 -90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 26 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$7 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$88 -88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $202 −$4 -2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$252 +165%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$36 +32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $63 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $99 3h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $151 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $145 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $198 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.11 · official $119.11 (match) · 43 history records