trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -14.3% | -22.5% | 33% | 33% | -27.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +96.1% | +77.4% | 62% | 62% | +59.1% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -20.0% | -27.6% | 29% | 29% | +11.4% |
| all | 25 | -23.2% | -30.5% | 28% | 28% | +10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.5% | 28% | +10.9% |
| 10% | -37.1% | 24% | +0.3% |
| 15% | -43.2% | 20% | -9.4% |
| 20% | -48.8% | 16% | -18.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 23¢ | $200 | $290 | +$90 (+45%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 73¢ | 74¢ | $250 | $252 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $250 | $246 | −$4 (-2%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 20¢ | $100 | $223 | +$123 (+123%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 52¢ | 50¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $205 | −$71 | -35% |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 29 | $102 | +$47 | +46% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $103 | −$56 | -54% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $153 | +$373 | +244% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $255 | +$440 | +172% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 07 | $102 | +$489 | +477% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 04 | $204 | −$200 | -98% |
| The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy | May 31 | $303 | +$58 | +19% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | May 28 | $101 | +$25 | +25% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? | May 20 | $259 | −$84 | -32% |
| Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 15 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi | May 13 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Wild vs. Avalanche | May 13 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | May 12 | $26 | −$25 | -94% |
| Avalanche vs. Wild | May 12 | $152 | −$150 | -98% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | May 01 | $206 | +$122 | +60% |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | Apr 28 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | Mar 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |