Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x139e…7988 crypto 1137 markets active 13h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate89%1008W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$29
14 days−$72
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 17% -4.0%
≤30d 674 +1.3% -8.3% 90% 16% -10.0%
≤90d 1137 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 20% -10.0%
all 1137 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 20% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 20% -10.0%
10% -16.3% 8% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 6% -26.4%
20% -31.8% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1008 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1137 / 1137
History coverage76d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1137 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2197 history records