Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x139e…470f politics 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 102L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
politics 43% −$10
sports 6% +$85
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 114 +4.2% -5.7% 11% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 11% -9.2%
10% -14.7% 10% -17.9%
15% -23.0% 5% -25.8%
20% -30.5% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×14.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage115d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $150 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $296 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $598 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $421 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $283 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $133 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $141 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $311 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $126 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $388 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $302 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $396 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $296 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 15h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 40h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $116 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $116 31d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $124 32d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $124 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 33d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 33d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 33d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $123 33d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 34d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $125 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 382 history records