Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a0…e8b9 crypto 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-1%) realized −$95 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%239W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$126
14 days−$51
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$408
sports 14% −$197
other 12% −$45
world 5% −$130
politics 3% −$128
economics 0% −$24
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -27.1% -34.0% 39% 35% -29.1%
≤30d 87 -6.0% -15.0% 46% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 87 -6.0% -15.0% 46% 43% -13.4%
all 444 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 47% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 47% -10.7%
10% -17.9% 43% -19.3%
15% -25.8% 40% -27.1%
20% -33.1% 36% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses239 / 205
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)444 / 445
History coverage596d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 16¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -18%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 +$1 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 +$1 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $7 −$2 -26%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$3 -62%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$5 +27%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$4 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$9 +183%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 +$9 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 +$9 +172%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $8 −$2 -30%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$14 -70%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$14 -69%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 16¢ $5 1h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) SELL Senegal 50¢ $6 1h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 39¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $5 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 75¢ $4 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 91¢ $5 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 73¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) BUY Morocco 12¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 37¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 68¢ $11 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 14¢ $2 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 67¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.47 (match) · 877 history records