Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a2…2af6 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$14
politics 33% −$11
sports 9% −$16
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 3% -9.6%
all 125 -3.5% -12.7% 9% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage118d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $205 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $448 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $218 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $160 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $377 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $163 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $352 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $350 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $220 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $299 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $194 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $399 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 44h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 47h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $152 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $193 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 374 history records