Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a4…8f84 crypto 469 markets active 3h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,066 (+18%) realized +$6,066 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%221W / 248L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$446
14 days+$340
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,661
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -27.8% -34.7% 38% 35% -24.0%
≤30d 120 +8.8% -1.6% 46% 40% -7.3%
≤90d 469 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 40% +5.8%
all 469 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 40% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 40% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 36% -4.3%
15% -16.7% 33% -13.5%
20% -24.9% 30% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$54 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,066
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses221 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)469 / 469
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 469 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$45 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$67 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $44 +$56 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$51 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$72 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$56 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$36 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$37 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$72 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $59 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $44 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $60 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $48 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $54 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $13 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $9 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $55 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records