Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13a5…6ed6 other 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1,172 (+36%) realized +$1,182 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$543per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+17.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+29.5%	+17.2%	80%	80%	+46.4%
≤30d	5	+29.5%	+17.2%	80%	80%	+46.4%
≤90d	5	+29.5%	+17.2%	80%	80%	+46.4%
all	5	+29.5%	+17.2%	80%	80%	+46.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.2%	80%	+46.4%
10%	+6.0%	80%	+32.4%
15%	-4.3%	80%	+19.6%
20%	-13.7%	60%	+7.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +62% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$295 vs −$20 · ×14.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×59.01 per $1 lost it wins $59.01

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$1,357

Realized+$1,182

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage4d

Avg bet$543

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$1,368	$1,357	−$10 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$826	+$557	+67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$526	+$300	+57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$304	+$223	+73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$202	+$101	+50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,382	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$826	19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$526	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$304	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$202	4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,357.26 · official $1,357.26 (match) · 10 history records