Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13a7…b720 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 248L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 23% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$7
economics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $416 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $400 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $884 −$3 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $855 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $340 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $455 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $260 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 8h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 14h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 16h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 21h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 33h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 41h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.62 · official $56.62 (match) · 1395 history records