trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -27.3% | -34.2% | 50% | 50% | -56.7% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -27.3% | -34.2% | 50% | 50% | -56.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 43% | 43% | -21.0% |
| all | 9 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 44% | 33% | -22.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 33% | -22.9% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 22% | -30.2% |
| 15% | -33.2% | 11% | -37.0% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 11% | -43.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 77¢ | 99¢ | $85 | $109 | +$24 (+29%) |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $68 | $69 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 58¢ | 62¢ | $64 | $68 | +$4 (+6%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 46¢ | 56¢ | $55 | $68 | +$13 (+23%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 78¢ | 79¢ | $53 | $53 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84¢ | 89¢ | $37 | $39 | +$2 (+6%) |
| Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | Yes | 54¢ | 32¢ | $50 | $30 | −$20 (-40%) |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 18¢ | $65 | $21 | −$43 (-67%) |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 12¢ | $57 | $12 | −$45 (-79%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 28 | $182 | −$142 | -78% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 28 | $62 | +$15 | +24% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | May 10 | $28 | +$3 | +11% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Apr 29 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Apr 29 | $15 | +$37 | +250% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 07 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during | Mar 30 | $800 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Mar 27 | $29 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | Mar 17 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |