Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13ab…b402 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-18%) realized −$88 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$9
crypto 36% +$27
other 15% −$50
weather 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -50.0% -54.8% 40% 40% -48.9%
≤90d 5 -50.0% -54.8% 40% 40% -48.9%
all 5 -50.0% -54.8% 40% 40% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.8% 40% -48.9%
10% -59.1% 40% -53.8%
15% -63.0% 0% -58.3%
20% -66.7% 0% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage27d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 40¢ 49¢ $120 $147 +$27 (+23%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 35¢ 34¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $102 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $115 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $30 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $10 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 26d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 52¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.54 · official $307.01 · 11 history records