Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13ab…df45 crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%91W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$13
other 3% −$7
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +7.5% -2.8% 75% 65% -8.2%
≤30d 143 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 52% -10.9%
≤90d 143 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 52% -10.9%
all 143 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 52% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 52% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -19.5%
15% -25.3% 25% -27.2%
20% -32.6% 19% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses91 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage13d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$12 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records