Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x13ad…4fde crypto 66 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%42W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$4
other 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.9% -2.4% 63% 52% -12.0%
≤30d 66 +8.3% -2.0% 64% 53% -11.8%
≤90d 66 +8.3% -2.0% 64% 53% -11.8%
all 66 +8.3% -2.0% 64% 53% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 53% -11.8%
10% -11.4% 35% -20.2%
15% -20.0% 21% -27.9%
20% -27.8% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses42 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +822%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records