Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13af…15b0 other 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$30
sports 23% −$21
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$9
culture 7% −$10
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 162 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage139d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $418 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $201 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $314 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $661 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $394 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $515 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $248 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $339 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $391 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $173 +$1 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $676 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 3h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 5h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 6h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 12h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 15h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 16h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 17h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 20h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 21h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 23h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 24h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 29h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 33h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $22 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 38h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $23 38h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $23 38h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $68 40h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 41h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 43h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1407 history records