Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13af…c577 politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
politics 29% $0
other 24% −$1
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage276d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $18 $0 -1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 24 $2 $0 +9%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $27 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $29 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $29 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $29 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $15 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $15 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $28 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 16d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $18 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $11 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $28 17d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 144d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 202d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 261d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 82¢ $4 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records