Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13b0…f02a sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge

Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$19 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%17W / 13L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$34

7 days+$82

14 days+$86

30 days+$86

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+22.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+88.6%	+70.6%	69%	69%	+27.7%
≤30d	30	+34.9%	+22.0%	57%	57%	+6.7%
≤90d	30	+34.9%	+22.0%	57%	57%	+6.7%
all	30	+34.9%	+22.0%	57%	57%	+6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.0%	57%	+6.7%
10%	+10.4%	57%	-3.5%
15%	-0.3%	57%	-12.8%
20%	-10.1%	57%	-21.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +63% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses17 / 13

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)30 / 48

History coverage13d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	48¢	42¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$23	+$18	+79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$24	+$16	+67%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 27	$10	+$25	+246%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	Jun 25	$13	−$13	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	+$22	+109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	−$30	-99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$13	+$18	+140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$20	+$17	+85%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-98%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Bruno Fern	Jun 23	$4	+$7	+187%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND	Jun 23	$2	+$9	+568%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$20	+$14	+70%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$20	+$16	+79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$15	+$22	+146%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$18	−$18	-98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+71%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$20	+$17	+83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$10	+$11	+109%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$17	+$24	+140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$20	+$19	+93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$20	+$15	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	48¢	$30	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$23	3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: France	BUY	2¢	$0	9h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will B	BUY	19¢	$2	9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$24	32h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY	40¢	$20	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Colombia vs.	BUY	3¢	$1	2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	BUY	28¢	$10	2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams	BUY	28¢	$10	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY	29¢	$6	3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	40¢	$13	4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Sc	BUY	8¢	$1	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	4d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 AND Switzerla	BUY	45¢	$1	5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$13	5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY	10¢	$1	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	54¢	$19	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	54¢	$1	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: Bot	BUY	14¢	$1	5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	5d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	54¢	$20	6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Bruno Fern	BUY	34¢	$4	6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi	BUY	18¢	$2	6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND	BUY	15¢	$2	7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$15	7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	43¢	$20	7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5	BUY Over	32¢	$10	8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5	BUY Over	42¢	$20	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.56 · official $28.99 · 67 history records