Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x13b1…10d9 crypto 1237 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$514 (-1%) realized −$497 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%509W / 734L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$244
14 days−$305
30 days−$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$381
world 24% −$172
other 4% −$76
politics 4% −$5
sports 3% −$12
economics 1% −$10
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -39.5% -45.3% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 45 -16.6% -24.6% 13% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 898 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 0% -10.9%
all 1243 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$497
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses509 / 734
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1243 / 1237
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 38¢ $90 $73 −$17 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$29 -117%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $696 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $1,520 −$3 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,110 −$2 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,068 −$78 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 18 $132 $0 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $258 −$7 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $166 +$3 +2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $229 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $3,290 −$13 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,449 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $267 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,143 −$50 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $239 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $37 +$2 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $198 +$3 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $585 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $284 −$36 -13%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $607 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $390 −$29 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $249 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $188 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $282 −$1 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $937 −$13 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1,344 −$195 -14%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 28 $442 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $89 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 25 $269 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $328 −$22 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $357 +$6 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $415 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $225 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $225 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $293 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $47 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $15 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $7 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $28 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $78 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $471 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $124 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $106 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $51 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $102 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $402 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $398 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $0 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $20 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $9 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $9 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $8 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $8 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $170 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.98 · official $72.98 (match) · 3500 history records