Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13b4…f4d9 sports 388 markets active 0h ago coverage 629d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,399 (+0%) realized +$1,399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%255W / 133L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$836per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2,678est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 629d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$6,423
other 5% +$4,694
crypto 4% −$65
politics 2% −$825
world 0% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +8.8% -1.6% 81% 67% -7.2%
≤30d 80 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 64% -17.9%
≤90d 341 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 62% -11.0%
all 388 +2.4% -7.4% 66% 59% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 59% -10.3%
10% -16.2% 49% -18.8%
15% -24.3% 37% -26.7%
20% -31.7% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$839) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$758 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses255 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$2,678
Open positions0
Markets (closed)388 / 388
History coverage629d
Avg bet$836
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 388 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $494 −$494 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $363 −$363 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $149 +$127 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $265 +$96 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $117 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $352 −$345 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $599 +$103 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $115 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $117 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $241 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $233 +$47 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $389 +$75 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $596 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $347 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $603 +$26 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $283 +$69 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $232 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $391 +$133 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $117 +$42 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $116 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $272 +$54 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $233 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $352 +$131 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $232 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $233 +$52 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $233 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $292 −$283 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $317 −$309 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $313 +$51 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $319 +$238 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $224 +$74 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $221 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $322 +$226 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $243 +$65 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $231 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $178 +$53 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $151 +$27 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $78 +$70 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $241 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $192 +$102 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $494 −$494 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $247 +$231 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $189 +$363 +192%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $377 +$259 +69%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $162 −$159 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $244 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $119 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $361 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $29 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $118 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $118 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $119 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $124 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $117 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $247 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $247 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $118 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $117 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $117 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $117 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $241 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $241 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $115 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $148 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $117 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $241 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $280 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $116 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $117 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $201 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1095 history records