Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13b5…2c2c sports 864 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$750 (+6%) realized +$757 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%330W / 513L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$49
14 days+$41
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$243
other 35% +$456
world 2% +$97
finance 0% −$17
politics 0% −$16
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$13
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +53.0% +38.4% 48% 48% +37.3%
≤30d 73 +19.3% +7.9% 42% 42% +8.9%
≤90d 339 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 40% -4.7%
all 843 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 39% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 39% -3.7%
10% -18.3% 39% -12.9%
15% -26.2% 38% -21.3%
20% -33.4% 38% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$757
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses330 / 513
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions20
Markets (closed)843 / 864
History coverage146d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 843 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Yes 49¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Yes 13¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 480 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$10 +145%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +980%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$10 +325%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +249%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 +$2 +97%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +114%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 +$5 +97%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 30 $2 +$2 +105%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $7 +$7 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $9 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $7 50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 51m
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $2 51m
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 51m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 45¢ $8 53m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $8 1h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $11 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $6 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 22h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $7 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $3 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.35 · official $60.35 (match) · 1229 history records