Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13b8…56cc crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,686 (+32%) realized +$1,687 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%22W / 47L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,236
7 days−$1,206
14 days−$1,226
30 days−$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,436
crypto 42% −$355
politics 8% +$3,594
sports 2% −$21
finance 0% +$6
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -19.6% -27.2% 36% 30% -39.9%
≤30d 38 -27.6% -34.5% 32% 26% -40.4%
≤90d 69 -24.8% -32.0% 32% 29% +22.4%
all 69 -24.8% -32.0% 32% 29% +22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 29% +22.4%
10% -38.5% 23% +10.7%
15% -44.4% 19% +0.0%
20% -49.9% 17% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$60 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$1,687
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage80d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $313 +$452 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $240 −$233 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $239 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $126 +$113 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$81 -40%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $111 −$5 -5%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 26 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$12 -76%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $316 −$233 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $751 −$740 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$11 -14%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 25 $2 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $365 −$362 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $211 +$155 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$66 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$9 +38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$36 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -54%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote) Jun 04 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 09 $33 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 09 $17 +$16 +97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 06 $54 −$50 -93%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026? May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $386 +$3,609 +934%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 30 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 23 $8 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $97 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $209 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $239 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $126 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 69¢ $106 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 71¢ $111 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 25¢ $117 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $147 7h
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $5 8h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 61¢ $5 8h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $5 8h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 15h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 56¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.01 · official $104.28 · 153 history records