Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

13 0x13b8…0f33 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$195 (+10%) realized +$184 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate94%15W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+3.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+14.3%	+3.4%	94%	56%	+0.0%
≤30d	16	+14.3%	+3.4%	94%	56%	+0.0%
≤90d	16	+14.3%	+3.4%	94%	56%	+0.0%
all	16	+14.3%	+3.4%	94%	56%	+0.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.4%	56%	+0.0%
10%	-6.5%	31%	-9.5%
15%	-15.5%	12%	-18.3%
20%	-23.8%	6%	-26.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late +16% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×9.24 per $1 lost it wins $9.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$241

Realized+$184

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses15 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage4d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos	Kiwoom Heroes	94¢	100¢	$130	$138	+$8 (+6%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers	Hanwha Eagles	97¢	100¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$500	+$76	+15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox	Jun 27	$300	+$2	+1%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 27	$100	+$3	+3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Jun 27	$50	+$8	+16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$43	+$10	+24%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$101	+$55	+54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$30	+$3	+11%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins	Jun 25	$137	+$4	+3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$60	+$1	+2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$11	+23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$56	+$18	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$79	+$5	+6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$20	+$3	+14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$21	+$10	+46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$112	−$23	-20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$111	+$1	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos	BUY Kiwoom Heroes	95¢	$100	1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos	BUY Kiwoom Heroes	93¢	$30	1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers	BUY Hanwha Eagles	97¢	$100	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	89¢	$299	8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$201	9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox	SELL Chicago White Sox	100¢	$302	10h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	SELL Boston Red Sox	100¢	$103	10h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	SELL Cincinnati Reds	100¢	$58	10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Chicago White Sox	99¢	$300	10h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY Cincinnati Reds	86¢	$50	10h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	97¢	$100	11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$54	14h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$156	15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$43	21h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	99¢	$33	36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	37h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins	BUY Samsung Lions	97¢	$137	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$61	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	98¢	$60	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$56	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	81¢	$50	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$84	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	94¢	$79	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	88¢	$20	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$21	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$90	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$112	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	99¢	$111	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.57 · official $240.57 (match) · 36 history records