Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13ba…53e4 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$177 (-11%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days−$283
14 days−$283
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$68
other 24% −$301
crypto 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 33% -26.8%
≤30d 43 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 33% -25.9%
≤90d 43 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 33% -25.9%
all 43 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 33% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 33% -25.9%
10% -22.6% 33% -33.0%
15% -30.1% 30% -39.4%
20% -36.9% 28% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$33 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $49 −$48 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$63 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $108 +$79 +73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$27 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $51 +$77 +152%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$75 +123%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$16 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $91 +$99 +108%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $121 +$83 +68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$14 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $49 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 37¢ $31 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $20 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 70¢ $30 16h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 18h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $41 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 18¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $28 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $101 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $101 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $7 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $61 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $51 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $51 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 71¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records