Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13bc…f29a world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$18
sports 29% −$12
other 20% −$2
finance 3% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 31 -4.5% -13.6% 23% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 47 -2.9% -12.2% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 50 -4.7% -13.8% 26% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -10.4%
10% -22.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage491d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $6 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$11 -20%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $19 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $50 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $86 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $43 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $90 +$3 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $178 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $276 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $275 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $276 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
South Florida vs. UTSA Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $6 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $6 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $15 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.43 · official $26.40 (match) · 216 history records